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Progress Against Recycling Targets: 2024 Q1 PRN Market Review

The latest recycling figures for Q1 of 2024, released by the Environment Agency, reveal positive production figures for most grades, with only Aluminium and Glass warranting concern.

Despite experiencing a 2% dip in overall production compared to Q1 of 2023, most grades are comfortably positioned for the upcoming year. However, challenges persist, particularly in Aluminium and Glass Remelt sectors, which warrant further examination.

Additionally, while these figures offer valuable insights into the progress of each grade, they do not provide a complete depiction of the industry’s targets for the year. The official obligation figures for 2024, scheduled for release in May, will offer the comprehensive context necessary to accurately assess our progress.

Paper and Board

Paper and Board delivered its strongest quarterly performance in the past year, with 1,031,882t recycled compared to 1,030,110t in Q1 of 2023. This surge places the grade significantly ahead of target (213,993t ahead), nearly a full month’s worth of production. With the recent easing of export issues in the Red Sea region, we anticipate this grade will continue its robust performance into the second quarter of the year.

Glass Other and Glass Remelt

Remelt experienced its weakest quarterly performance relative to the previous year, with a notable 9% reduction in supply. This decline presents a hurdle in achieving glass recycling targets, particularly considering the fluctuating PRN prices.

Glass Other, despite being behind on its year-to-date target (-10,581.75t), has shown resilience with its strongest quarter in the past year, boasting a 2% increase compared to last year’s performance. It appears that the struggles and price fluctuations within the Remelt category have partially slowed the consistent downtrend in the Aggregates’ market, aligning with previous forecasts.

Nevertheless, we anticipate that the upcoming obligation figures will provide a clearer indication of how these two grades have been performing against targets.

Aluminium

Aluminium stands out as the poorest-performing material emerging from the first quarterly report of the year, despite this Alu sits marginally ahead of target (68t ahead). This grade experienced a notable 13% decrease in PRN production compared to the previous year (35,366 vs 40,478 PRNs produced in Q1 of 2023). This contrast with the consistent positive performances witnessed from this grade in previous years.

The constrained Aluminium production has resulted in substantial price surges within a few days of the data release. We anticipate gaining a clearer understanding of this grade’s standing against requirements once the full obligation figures are released in mid-May.

Steel

Steel witnessed a 6% decline in production during the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year (97,988t in Q1 2024 vs.104,126t in Q1 2023). However, Steel continues to maintain its lead over target (11,155.75 ahead), with no significant anticipation of this changing. Nevertheless, it’s important to bear in mind that the official obligation figures could influence the progress of this grade towards meeting recycling targets.

Plastic

Plastic has seen an additional 18,000t added to its total production for Q1 of 2024 (303,519t), bringing it to a relatively comfortable position at 28,415.25t ahead of target, marking an 8% increase compared to the same period last year. Consequently, the market has remained stable following the release of the Q1 data.

It is worth noting that several Plastic reprocessors are yet to report their quarterly figures, suggesting that this grade is likely to strengthen further once we have a complete view of the production data. As is the case with all grades, it’s important to proceed with caution until the full obligation figures are released in mid-May.

Wood

Despite a 9% decrease in wood production volumes compared to the previous year (162,993t in Q1 2024 vs. 179,343t in Q1 2023) Wood remains significantly ahead of target by 183%, equivalent to a surplus of 78,307.75t, which amounts to over 2 months’ worth of production. Consequently, the market has shown signs of downwards movement after a period of stagnation.

It is expected that this grade will sustain its strong performance into the second quarter of the year. However, it’s important to exercise caution and await the release of the full obligation figures, as volatility in the market is common for this grade. This will provide a clearer picture and help navigate any fluctuations effectively.


As we anticipate the release of the full obligation figures in mid-May, it appears likely that the market may encounter further price fluctuations.

Despite a 2% decrease in overall production, the data for most grades paints a positive picture for the remainder of the year. However, it's crucial to approach the PRN market with caution until the obligation figures provide more context regarding progress towards recycling targets, as we are currently working with estimated obligation figures.

Particular attention should be paid to the Glass Re-melt and Aluminium grades. At Clarity, our dedicated PRN trading team remains vigilant in updating all our clients on market factors and shifts. If you would like to discuss the latest PRN data further with a member of our expert team, please feel free to reach out to us utilising the form below

Francesco Vellutino

Key Account Manager - Trading, Clarity Environmental

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If you have any questions about PRN trading or packaging compliance, please contact us and one of our specialists will respond to you as soon as possible.

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